Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers · 8:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays (away)
Nick Martinez vs Kumar Rocker
Projected 5.2 – 4.6 · total 9.8
Fragile edgeLeanLean: a small bet (Adjusted EV 2–5%). Lower conviction; stake capped at 0.5% of bankroll.Starter change (home)This pick was priced on Kumar Rocker starting for the home team; the probable starter is now Trevor Williams. The market has repriced this game and the pick's stated edge no longer reflects it.CLV−Projected lineupSharps fade 3.7ppYou're betting against the sharp books' consensus on this side by this many percentage points. Higher = more contrarian to the smartest money (already penalized in Adjusted EV).win-115
Raw EVRaw expected value: the model's edge from its win probability vs the price, before any context adjustments. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.+3.2%
Adj EVAdjusted EV: Raw EV after small context haircuts/boosts (sharp support/fade, projected lineup, fragile edge). This is the number used to size the bet.+1.2%
ModelThe model's win probability for this side, after blending toward the market. Used to compute EV.55.2%
MarketThe market's fair win probability for this side — the book's moneyline with the vig (juice) removed.51.2%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll, from the Kelly criterion (quarter-Kelly, then capped by the bet tier).0.5%
ConfModel confidence (0–100): data completeness, pitcher sample size, edge magnitude, and how much the model's components agree.74
CLVClosing Line Value: how much better your bet price was than the closing line. Positive = you beat the close — the key long-run skill signal.-6.5%
SizingsmallKelly 0.5% 0.9%
adj EV 1.2% < 2% but raw EV cleared the pick threshold -> floored to small (selection is by raw EV; haircuts only size)
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Dynamic adjustments
Base win prob (home): 41.4%
- Starting pitcherrate H=4.42(statcast_rate) A=4.12(statcast_rate)-1.90%
- Bullpenrelief FIP H=4.20 A=3.88-0.71%
- Bullpen availabilityH 3/3 leverage arms available (+0.0%); A 3/3 leverage arms available (+0.0%)+0.00%
- Lineupdata unavailableH projected lineup; A projected lineup+0.00%
- Park / offensePF=102 wRC+ H=99 A=104+0.00%
- Home field+0.025 home+2.50%
- Recent formxwOBAcon H 30d=0.405/season=0.379 | A 14d=0.280/30d=0.332/season=0.358 (normal cap +/-1.5%)-1.50%
EV adjustments
Raw +3.2% → +1.2% (used for sizing)
- · -1.0pp sharp fade (3.7pp)
- · -1.0pp fragile edge
Market intelligence
Blend (high · data conf 89): model 39.8% × 0.45 + market 48.8% → 44.8% (home, used for EV)
Open -115 → Close +100 · CLV -6.5%
Sharps (n=3): 48.5% home · Squares (n=3): 49.5% home · S−Sq -1.0pp · dispersion 0.9pp