Results

Settled bets and daily profit / loss.

Sat, May 30, 2026

Record2W – 3L
Graded5
Kelly P/L+0.0048u
Kelly ROI11.7%

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals · 7:15 PM ET

Chicago Cubs (away)

Ben Brown vs Kyle Leahy

Projected 5.9 – 3.7 · total 9.6

StandardStandard bet (Adjusted EV 5–8%); stake capped at 1% of bankroll.Projected lineupSharps fade 4.9ppYou're betting against the sharp books' consensus on this side by this many percentage points. Higher = more contrarian to the smartest money (already penalized in Adjusted EV).win-136
Raw EVRaw expected value: the model's edge from its win probability vs the price, before any context adjustments. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.+6.0%
Adj EVAdjusted EV: Raw EV after small context haircuts/boosts (sharp support/fade, projected lineup, fragile edge). This is the number used to size the bet.+6.0%
ModelThe model's win probability for this side, after blending toward the market. Used to compute EV.61.1%
MarketThe market's fair win probability for this side — the book's moneyline with the vig (juice) removed.55.5%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll, from the Kelly criterion (quarter-Kelly, then capped by the bet tier).2.0%
ConfModel confidence (0–100): data completeness, pitcher sample size, edge magnitude, and how much the model's components agree.76
CLVClosing Line Value: how much better your bet price was than the closing line. Positive = you beat the close — the key long-run skill signal.+0.0%
Sizingstandard

confidence -2.5 for 4.9pp sharp fade

Show model breakdown ▾

Dynamic adjustments

Base win prob (home): 49.5%

  • Starting pitcherrate H=5.38(statcast_rate) A=3.26(statcast_rate)-13.53%
  • Bullpenrelief FIP H=4.29 A=3.39-1.98%
  • Bullpen availabilityH 3/3 leverage arms available; A 3/3 leverage arms available+0.00%
  • Lineupdata unavailableH projected lineup; A projected lineup+0.00%
  • Park / offensePF=99 wRC+ H=100 A=106+0.01%
  • Home field+0.025 home+2.50%
  • Recent formxwOBAcon H 14d=0.497/30d=0.469/season=0.437 | A 14d=0.411/season=0.325-4.52%

Market intelligence

Blend (high · data conf 86): model 32.0% × 0.45 + market 44.5% → 38.9% (home, used for EV)

Open -136 → Close -136 · CLV 0.0%

Sharps (n=3): 43.8% home · Squares (n=3): 44.4% home · S−Sq -0.6pp · dispersion 0.4pp

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox · 2:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox (home)

Framber Valdez vs Anthony Kay

Projected 5.1 – 5.0 · total 10.1

LeanLean: a small bet (Adjusted EV 2–5%). Lower conviction; stake capped at 0.5% of bankroll.Projected lineupSharps fade 3.9ppYou're betting against the sharp books' consensus on this side by this many percentage points. Higher = more contrarian to the smartest money (already penalized in Adjusted EV).win+113
Raw EVRaw expected value: the model's edge from its win probability vs the price, before any context adjustments. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.+4.7%
Adj EVAdjusted EV: Raw EV after small context haircuts/boosts (sharp support/fade, projected lineup, fragile edge). This is the number used to size the bet.+4.7%
ModelThe model's win probability for this side, after blending toward the market. Used to compute EV.49.1%
MarketThe market's fair win probability for this side — the book's moneyline with the vig (juice) removed.44.5%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll, from the Kelly criterion (quarter-Kelly, then capped by the bet tier).0.5%
ConfModel confidence (0–100): data completeness, pitcher sample size, edge magnitude, and how much the model's components agree.64
CLVClosing Line Value: how much better your bet price was than the closing line. Positive = you beat the close — the key long-run skill signal.+6.5%
SizingsmallKelly 0.5% 1.0%

EV 4.7% in lean range (< 5.0%) · confidence -2.0 for 3.9pp sharp fade

Show model breakdown ▾

Dynamic adjustments

Base win prob (home): 58.0%

  • Starting pitcherrate H=5.05(statcast_rate) A=4.32(statcast_rate)-4.76%
  • Bullpenrelief FIP H=4.51 A=4.17-0.74%
  • Bullpen availabilityH 3/3 leverage arms available; A 3/3 leverage arms available+0.00%
  • Lineupdata unavailableH projected lineup; A projected lineup+0.00%
  • Park / offensePF=99 wRC+ H=106 A=93-0.02%
  • Home field+0.025 home+2.50%
  • Recent formxwOBAcon H 14d=0.306/30d=0.332/season=0.389 | A 14d=0.382/30d=0.405/season=0.363+2.73%

Market intelligence

Blend (mid · data conf 74): model 57.7% × 0.35 + market 44.5% → 49.1% (home, used for EV)

Open +113 → Close +100 · CLV 6.5%

Sharps (n=3): 45.2% home · Squares (n=3): 44.6% home · S−Sq +0.7pp · dispersion 0.4pp

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets · 4:10 PM ET

Miami Marlins (away)

Tyler Phillips vs Christian Scott

Projected 4.0 – 3.2 · total 7.2

LeanLean: a small bet (Adjusted EV 2–5%). Lower conviction; stake capped at 0.5% of bankroll.Projected lineupSharps fade 4.5ppYou're betting against the sharp books' consensus on this side by this many percentage points. Higher = more contrarian to the smartest money (already penalized in Adjusted EV).loss+113
Raw EVRaw expected value: the model's edge from its win probability vs the price, before any context adjustments. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.+4.6%
Adj EVAdjusted EV: Raw EV after small context haircuts/boosts (sharp support/fade, projected lineup, fragile edge). This is the number used to size the bet.+4.6%
ModelThe model's win probability for this side, after blending toward the market. Used to compute EV.49.1%
MarketThe market's fair win probability for this side — the book's moneyline with the vig (juice) removed.44.5%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll, from the Kelly criterion (quarter-Kelly, then capped by the bet tier).0.5%
ConfModel confidence (0–100): data completeness, pitcher sample size, edge magnitude, and how much the model's components agree.64
CLVClosing Line Value: how much better your bet price was than the closing line. Positive = you beat the close — the key long-run skill signal.+1.9%
SizingsmallKelly 0.5% 1.0%

EV 4.6% in lean range (< 5.0%) · confidence -2.2 for 4.5pp sharp fade

Show model breakdown ▾

Dynamic adjustments

Base win prob (home): 47.0%

  • Starting pitcherrate H=4.10(statcast_rate) A=3.64(statcast_rate)-3.02%
  • Bullpenrelief FIP H=3.03 A=3.43+0.88%
  • Bullpen availabilityH 3/3 leverage arms available; A 3/3 leverage arms available+0.00%
  • Lineupdata unavailableH projected lineup; A projected lineup+0.00%
  • Park / offensePF=97 wRC+ H=82 A=98+0.06%
  • Home field+0.025 home+2.50%
  • Recent formxwOBAcon H 14d=0.366/30d=0.373/season=0.359 | A 14d=0.204/season=0.302-5.00%

Market intelligence

Blend (mid · data conf 75): model 42.5% × 0.35 + market 55.5% → 50.9% (home, used for EV)

Open +113 → Close +109 · CLV 1.9%

Sharps (n=3): 55.4% home · Squares (n=3): 55.8% home · S−Sq -0.4pp · dispersion 0.3pp

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles · 4:05 PM ET

Toronto Blue Jays (away)

Trey Yesavage vs Brandon Young

Projected 4.7 – 3.5 · total 8.2

LeanLean: a small bet (Adjusted EV 2–5%). Lower conviction; stake capped at 0.5% of bankroll.Projected lineupSharps fade 4.2ppYou're betting against the sharp books' consensus on this side by this many percentage points. Higher = more contrarian to the smartest money (already penalized in Adjusted EV).loss-125
Raw EVRaw expected value: the model's edge from its win probability vs the price, before any context adjustments. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.+3.1%
Adj EVAdjusted EV: Raw EV after small context haircuts/boosts (sharp support/fade, projected lineup, fragile edge). This is the number used to size the bet.+3.1%
ModelThe model's win probability for this side, after blending toward the market. Used to compute EV.57.3%
MarketThe market's fair win probability for this side — the book's moneyline with the vig (juice) removed.53.3%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll, from the Kelly criterion (quarter-Kelly, then capped by the bet tier).0.5%
ConfModel confidence (0–100): data completeness, pitcher sample size, edge magnitude, and how much the model's components agree.62
CLVClosing Line Value: how much better your bet price was than the closing line. Positive = you beat the close — the key long-run skill signal.+2.1%
SizingsmallKelly 0.5% 1.0%

EV 3.1% in lean range (< 5.0%) · confidence -2.1 for 4.2pp sharp fade

Show model breakdown ▾

Dynamic adjustments

Base win prob (home): 47.7%

  • Starting pitcherrate H=4.18(statcast_rate) A=2.80(statcast_rate)-8.92%
  • Bullpenrelief FIP H=4.61 A=3.48-2.49%
  • Bullpen availabilityH 3/3 leverage arms available; A 3/3 leverage arms available+0.00%
  • Lineupdata unavailableH projected lineup; A projected lineup+0.00%
  • Park / offensePF=102 wRC+ H=102 A=94+0.02%
  • Home field+0.025 home+2.50%
  • Recent formxwOBAcon H 14d=0.340/30d=0.361/season=0.347 | A 14d=0.292/30d=0.275/season=0.259-3.36%

Market intelligence

Blend (mid · data conf 77): model 35.4% × 0.35 + market 46.7% → 42.7% (home, used for EV)

Open -125 → Close -131 · CLV 2.1%

Sharps (n=3): 47.0% home · Squares (n=3): 46.6% home · S−Sq +0.4pp · dispersion 0.4pp

Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays · 4:10 PM ET

Tampa Bay Rays (home)

Reid Detmers vs Drew Rasmussen

Projected 3.9 – 4.6 · total 8.5

LeanLean: a small bet (Adjusted EV 2–5%). Lower conviction; stake capped at 0.5% of bankroll.Low confProjected lineupSharps fade 3.9ppYou're betting against the sharp books' consensus on this side by this many percentage points. Higher = more contrarian to the smartest money (already penalized in Adjusted EV).loss-156
Raw EVRaw expected value: the model's edge from its win probability vs the price, before any context adjustments. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.+3.0%
Adj EVAdjusted EV: Raw EV after small context haircuts/boosts (sharp support/fade, projected lineup, fragile edge). This is the number used to size the bet.+3.0%
ModelThe model's win probability for this side, after blending toward the market. Used to compute EV.62.8%
MarketThe market's fair win probability for this side — the book's moneyline with the vig (juice) removed.58.8%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll, from the Kelly criterion (quarter-Kelly, then capped by the bet tier).0.6%
ConfModel confidence (0–100): data completeness, pitcher sample size, edge magnitude, and how much the model's components agree.59
CLVClosing Line Value: how much better your bet price was than the closing line. Positive = you beat the close — the key long-run skill signal.+2.9%
SizingsmallKelly 0.6% 1.2%

EV 3.0% in lean range (< 5.0%) · confidence -2.0 for 3.9pp sharp fade

Show model breakdown ▾

Dynamic adjustments

Base win prob (home): 67.0%

  • Starting pitcherrate H=3.42(statcast_rate) A=3.14(statcast_rate)-1.85%
  • Bullpenrelief FIP H=4.30 A=5.55+2.74%
  • Bullpen availabilityH 3/3 leverage arms available; A 3/3 leverage arms available+0.00%
  • Lineupdata unavailableH projected lineup; A projected lineup+0.00%
  • Park / offensePF=97 wRC+ H=106 A=96-0.04%
  • Home field+0.025 home+2.50%
  • Recent formxwOBAcon H 14d=0.335/30d=0.368/season=0.347 | A 14d=0.344/30d=0.348/season=0.334-0.22%

Market intelligence

Blend (mid · data conf 74): model 70.1% × 0.35 + market 58.8% → 62.8% (home, used for EV)

Open -156 → Close -168 · CLV 2.9%

Sharps (n=3): 58.8% home · Squares (n=3): 58.5% home · S−Sq +0.3pp · dispersion 0.5pp