Grading log

Results

Settled bets and daily profit / loss.

Sun, Jul 19, 2026

Record0W – 1L
Graded1
Kelly P/L-0.0050u
Kelly ROI-100.0%
DateSportMatchupPickLineResultCLVUnits
Sun, Jul 19, 2026MLBDetroit Tigers @ Los Angeles AngelsDetroit Tigers-144loss+0.0%-1.00u
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Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels · 4:07 PM ET

Detroit Tigers (away)

Casey Mize vs Ryan Johnson

Projected 4.9 – 3.7 · total 8.6

Fragile edgeLeanLean: a small bet (Adjusted EV 2–5%). Lower conviction; stake capped at 0.5% of bankroll.Sharps fade 4.0ppYou're betting against the sharp books' consensus on this side by this many percentage points. Higher = more contrarian to the smartest money (already penalized in Adjusted EV).loss-144
Raw EVRaw expected value: the model's edge from its win probability vs the price, before any context adjustments. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.+3.1%
Adj EVAdjusted EV: Raw EV after small context haircuts/boosts (sharp support/fade, projected lineup, fragile edge). This is the number used to size the bet.+1.1%
ModelThe model's win probability for this side, after blending toward the market. Used to compute EV.60.8%
MarketThe market's fair win probability for this side — the book's moneyline with the vig (juice) removed.56.8%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll, from the Kelly criterion (quarter-Kelly, then capped by the bet tier).0.5%
ConfModel confidence (0–100): data completeness, pitcher sample size, edge magnitude, and how much the model's components agree.78
CLVClosing Line Value: how much better your bet price was than the closing line. Positive = you beat the close — the key long-run skill signal.+0.0%
SizingsmallKelly 0.5% 1.1%

adj EV 1.1% < 2% but raw EV cleared the pick threshold -> floored to small (selection is by raw EV; haircuts only size)

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Dynamic adjustments

Base win prob (home): 43.4%

  • Starting pitcherrate H=4.41(statcast_rate) A=3.10(statcast_rate)-8.45%
  • Bullpenrelief FIP H=4.40 A=3.89-1.12%
  • Bullpen availabilityH 3/3 leverage arms available (+0.0%); A 3/3 leverage arms available (+0.0%)+0.00%
  • LineupH confirmed, 2/3 key bats in; A confirmed, 3/3 key bats in-0.50%
  • Park / offensePF=101 wRC+ H=95 A=98+0.00%
  • Home field+0.025 home+2.50%
  • Recent formxwOBAcon H 14d=0.464/season=0.374 | A 14d=0.368/30d=0.345/season=0.336 (normal cap +/-1.5%)-1.50%

EV adjustments

Raw +3.1% → +1.1% (used for sizing)

  • · -1.0pp sharp fade (4.0pp)
  • · -1.0pp fragile edge

Market intelligence

Blend (high · data conf 94): model 34.3% × 0.45 + market 43.2% → 39.2% (home, used for EV)

Open -144 → Close -144 · CLV 0.0%

Sharps (n=3): 43.2% home · Squares (n=3): 43.3% home · S−Sq -0.2pp · dispersion 0.3pp