Performance terminal
Performance
The scoreboard. Win rate is noisy at small samples — closing-line value (CLV) and disciplined EV accounting are the real measures of edge.
Moneyline · lifetimeSettled 63/65 · updated Tue, Jul 21, 2026
Record33W – 30L
Win rate52.4%
Avg edgeAverage expected value across all bets at the price taken.3.9%
Avg CLVClosing Line Value: how much better the bet price was than the closing line. Positive = beat the close — the key long-run skill signal.1.0%tracked on 57 bets
Kelly ROI-7.1%
Flat ROIReturn on investment betting exactly 1 unit per pick, from stored odds and results.-0.7%
Flat units-0.42u
Kelly P/LProfit/loss as a fraction of bankroll with Kelly-sized stakes (bankroll-independent).-0.0298u
Bets65
Graded63
Totals (over/under)
Paper / simulatedRecordWins–losses–pushes over graded totals paper picks only. A final total exactly on the line is a push, never a loss. Kept fully separate from the moneyline record.21-17-2
Graded40
Avg CLVProbability points vs the sharp totals close — the go-live gate for the totals model.+0.70pp
Beat the close27/41
By bet tier
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | 8 | 3-5 | 37.5% | -41.0% | -41.1% | +6.1% |
| small | 56 | 29-25 | 53.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | +0.9% |
| standard | 1 | 1-0 | 100.0% | 73.5% | 73.5% | +0.0% |
By EV bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5% | 58 | 28-28 | 50.0% | -11.0% | -4.5% | +1.0% |
| 5-8% | 7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 7.3% | 30.3% | +1.2% |
Home vs road
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | 22 | 12-9 | 57.1% | -8.6% | 1.0% | +2.0% |
| road | 43 | 21-21 | 50.0% | -6.3% | -1.5% | +0.6% |
By blend tier
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| high | 32 | 15-15 | 50.0% | 0.8% | -5.8% | +0.6% |
| mid | 25 | 15-10 | 60.0% | 17.3% | 18.4% | +1.3% |
| n/a | 8 | 3-5 | 37.5% | -41.0% | -41.1% | +6.1% |
By sharp fade
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| neutral | 4 | 1-2 | 33.3% | -33.3% | -33.3% | +3.3% |
| fade 3-4pp | 33 | 20-13 | 60.6% | 16.6% | 18.3% | +0.8% |
| fade 4pp+ | 17 | 7-9 | 43.8% | -3.3% | -18.0% | +1.1% |
| n/a | 11 | 5-6 | 45.5% | -34.3% | -23.4% | -0.7% |
By odds bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| big fav (-150+) | 11 | 3-8 | 27.3% | -49.2% | -59.7% | +2.1% |
| small fav (-101..-149) | 39 | 23-15 | 60.5% | -0.2% | 10.4% | -0.2% |
| small dog (+100..+150) | 12 | 6-5 | 54.5% | 17.9% | 17.7% | +4.0% |
| big dog (+151+) | 3 | 1-2 | 33.3% | 3.6% | 8.3% | -0.6% |
By Kelly bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <0.5% | 51 | 27-22 | 55.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | +1.2% |
| 0.5-1% | 6 | 3-3 | 50.0% | 4.2% | -1.9% | -1.6% |
| 1-1.5% | 2 | 0-2 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | — |
| 1.5%+ | 6 | 3-3 | 50.0% | -16.4% | -22.5% | +3.0% |
By edge stability
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stable | 5 | 2-3 | 40.0% | -24.1% | -24.1% | +0.6% |
| moderate | 2 | 1-0 | 100.0% | 149.0% | 149.0% | +6.3% |
| fragile | 43 | 24-18 | 57.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | +1.0% |
| n/a | 15 | 6-9 | 40.0% | -27.2% | -29.8% | +0.0% |
By confidence bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-60 | 1 | 0-1 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | +2.9% |
| 60-80 | 61 | 31-28 | 52.5% | -3.5% | 0.8% | +1.0% |
| 80-100 | 3 | 2-1 | 66.7% | -24.2% | 3.0% | -1.2% |
Favorite vs underdog
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| favorite | 50 | 26-23 | 53.1% | -11.5% | -5.3% | +0.2% |
| underdog | 15 | 7-7 | 50.0% | 14.9% | 15.7% | +3.1% |
CLV positive vs negative
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV+ | 29 | 13-15 | 46.4% | -18.9% | -12.8% | +3.8% |
| CLV- | 28 | 16-11 | 59.3% | 22.1% | 17.8% | -1.9% |
| unknown | 8 | 4-4 | 50.0% | -29.1% | -20.7% | — |