Performance terminal
Performance
The scoreboard. Win rate is noisy at small samples — closing-line value (CLV) and disciplined EV accounting are the real measures of edge.
Moneyline · lifetimeSettled 178/180 · updated Fri, Sep 4, 2026
Record80W – 98L
Win rate44.9%
Avg edgeAverage expected value across all bets at the price taken.4.2%
Avg CLVClosing Line Value: how much better the bet price was than the closing line. Positive = beat the close — the key long-run skill signal.1.1%tracked on 170 bets
Kelly ROI-13.2%
Flat ROIReturn on investment betting exactly 1 unit per pick, from stored odds and results.-10.5%
Flat units-18.77u
Kelly P/LProfit/loss as a fraction of bankroll with Kelly-sized stakes (bankroll-independent).-0.1364u
Bets180
Graded178
Totals (over/under)
Paper / simulatedRecordWins–losses–pushes over graded totals paper picks only. A final total exactly on the line is a push, never a loss. Kept fully separate from the moneyline record.37-39-2
Graded78
Avg CLVProbability points vs the sharp totals close — the go-live gate for the totals model.+0.80pp
Beat the close56/81
By bet tier
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | 8 | 3-5 | 37.5% | -41.0% | -41.1% | +6.1% |
| small | 160 | 73-85 | 46.2% | -9.4% | -8.9% | +1.0% |
| standard | 12 | 4-8 | 33.3% | -8.2% | -11.2% | +1.3% |
By EV bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5% | 146 | 67-77 | 46.5% | -12.2% | -9.6% | +1.2% |
| 5-8% | 30 | 13-17 | 43.3% | -2.5% | -3.1% | +1.1% |
| 8-12% | 4 | 0-4 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -3.7% |
Home vs road
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | 57 | 28-28 | 50.0% | -9.0% | -8.6% | +3.2% |
| road | 123 | 52-70 | 42.6% | -15.1% | -11.4% | +0.1% |
By blend tier
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| high | 82 | 39-41 | 48.8% | -7.2% | -7.4% | +1.3% |
| low | 6 | 0-6 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -0.8% |
| mid | 84 | 38-46 | 45.2% | -4.3% | -4.2% | +1.0% |
| n/a | 8 | 3-5 | 37.5% | -41.0% | -41.1% | +6.1% |
By sharp fade
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| neutral | 63 | 26-37 | 41.3% | -14.0% | -14.2% | +2.5% |
| fade 3-4pp | 89 | 42-46 | 47.7% | -8.2% | -5.0% | +0.1% |
| fade 4pp+ | 17 | 7-9 | 43.8% | -3.3% | -18.0% | +1.1% |
| n/a | 11 | 5-6 | 45.5% | -34.3% | -23.4% | -0.7% |
By odds bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| big fav (-150+) | 11 | 3-8 | 27.3% | -49.2% | -59.7% | +2.1% |
| small fav (-101..-149) | 98 | 53-43 | 55.2% | -3.0% | 0.8% | -0.2% |
| small dog (+100..+150) | 43 | 16-27 | 37.2% | -23.5% | -20.1% | +1.9% |
| big dog (+151+) | 28 | 8-20 | 28.6% | -16.2% | -15.5% | +3.7% |
By Kelly bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <0.5% | 155 | 71-82 | 46.4% | -8.9% | -8.6% | +1.1% |
| 0.5-1% | 17 | 6-11 | 35.3% | -16.9% | -12.9% | +0.5% |
| 1-1.5% | 2 | 0-2 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | — |
| 1.5%+ | 6 | 3-3 | 50.0% | -16.4% | -22.5% | +3.0% |
By edge stability
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stable | 38 | 16-22 | 42.1% | -20.8% | -18.7% | +0.0% |
| moderate | 25 | 11-14 | 44.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | +5.8% |
| fragile | 102 | 47-53 | 47.0% | -10.4% | -8.4% | +0.4% |
| n/a | 15 | 6-9 | 40.0% | -27.2% | -29.8% | +0.0% |
By confidence bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-60 | 6 | 0-6 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -0.1% |
| 60-80 | 165 | 76-87 | 46.6% | -8.2% | -6.5% | +1.2% |
| 80-100 | 9 | 4-5 | 44.4% | -36.2% | -23.6% | -0.4% |
Favorite vs underdog
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| favorite | 109 | 56-51 | 52.3% | -8.8% | -5.4% | +0.0% |
| underdog | 71 | 24-47 | 33.8% | -20.4% | -18.3% | +2.6% |
CLV positive vs negative
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV+ | 74 | 31-43 | 41.9% | -17.5% | -15.4% | +4.8% |
| CLV- | 96 | 45-49 | 47.9% | -4.4% | -3.9% | -1.8% |
| unknown | 10 | 4-6 | 40.0% | -34.6% | -36.5% | — |