Performance
The scoreboard. Win rate is noisy at small samples — closing-line value (CLV) and disciplined EV accounting are the real measures of edge.
Bets15
Record6W – 6L
Hit rate50.0%
Kelly ROI-3.9%
Flat ROI-12.2%
Avg CLV0.0%
Settled 12 of 15 · Kelly P/L -0.0054u · Avg EV 4.6% · CLV tracked on 8 bets · updated Wed, May 27, 2026
By bet tier
| Bucket | Bets | Settled | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | 8 | 5 | 60.0% | -10.6% | -5.8% | +6.1% |
| small | 6 | 6 | 33.3% | -34.7% | -31.8% | -1.0% |
| standard | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 73.5% | 73.5% | +0.0% |
By EV bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Settled | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5% | 11 | 8 | 50.0% | 2.6% | -10.9% | -1.0% |
| 5-8% | 4 | 4 | 50.0% | -9.3% | -14.8% | +3.0% |
Home vs road
| Bucket | Bets | Settled | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | 6 | 4 | 75.0% | 30.9% | 29.2% | +4.7% |
| road | 9 | 8 | 37.5% | -18.8% | -32.9% | -1.5% |
By blend tier
| Bucket | Bets | Settled | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| high | 2 | 2 | 50.0% | 33.3% | -13.2% | -9.6% |
| mid | 5 | 5 | 40.0% | -19.5% | -18.2% | +2.7% |
| n/a | 8 | 5 | 60.0% | -10.6% | -5.8% | +6.1% |
By Kelly bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Settled | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <0.5% | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | +2.1% |
| 0.5-1% | 6 | 6 | 50.0% | 4.2% | -1.9% | -1.6% |
| 1-1.5% | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 1.5%+ | 6 | 5 | 60.0% | -2.3% | -7.0% | +3.0% |
By confidence bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Settled | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-60 | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | +2.9% |
| 60-80 | 12 | 9 | 55.6% | 17.1% | 3.2% | -0.4% |
| 80-100 | 2 | 2 | 50.0% | -37.8% | -37.8% | — |
Favorite vs underdog
| Bucket | Bets | Settled | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| favorite | 13 | 10 | 50.0% | -4.9% | -16.0% | -1.4% |
| underdog | 2 | 2 | 50.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | +4.2% |
CLV positive vs negative
| Bucket | Bets | Settled | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV+ | 5 | 5 | 20.0% | -69.5% | -57.4% | +3.9% |
| CLV- | 3 | 3 | 66.7% | 43.5% | 23.2% | -6.4% |
| unknown | 7 | 4 | 75.0% | 8.8% | 17.7% | — |