Performance terminal
Performance
The scoreboard. Win rate is noisy at small samples — closing-line value (CLV) and disciplined EV accounting are the real measures of edge.
Moneyline · lifetimeSettled 187/188 · updated Tue, Oct 20, 2026
Record87W – 100L
Win rate46.5%
Avg edgeAverage expected value across all bets at the price taken.4.2%
Avg CLVClosing Line Value: how much better the bet price was than the closing line. Positive = beat the close — the key long-run skill signal.1.1%tracked on 178 bets
Kelly ROI-11.0%
Flat ROIReturn on investment betting exactly 1 unit per pick, from stored odds and results.-8.1%
Flat units-15.20u
Kelly P/LProfit/loss as a fraction of bankroll with Kelly-sized stakes (bankroll-independent).-0.1185u
Bets188
Graded187
Totals (over/under)
Paper / simulatedRecordWins–losses–pushes over graded totals paper picks only. A final total exactly on the line is a push, never a loss. Kept fully separate from the moneyline record.44-54-5
Graded103
Avg CLVProbability points vs the sharp totals close — the go-live gate for the totals model.+0.75pp
Beat the close72/104
By bet tier
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | 8 | 3-5 | 37.5% | -41.0% | -41.1% | +6.1% |
| small | 168 | 80-87 | 47.9% | -6.7% | -6.3% | +1.1% |
| standard | 12 | 4-8 | 33.3% | -8.2% | -11.2% | +1.3% |
By EV bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5% | 154 | 74-79 | 48.4% | -9.4% | -6.7% | +1.2% |
| 5-8% | 30 | 13-17 | 43.3% | -2.5% | -3.1% | +1.1% |
| 8-12% | 4 | 0-4 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -3.7% |
Home vs road
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | 60 | 31-28 | 52.5% | -5.2% | -4.3% | +3.1% |
| road | 128 | 56-72 | 43.8% | -13.6% | -9.9% | +0.2% |
By blend tier
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| high | 90 | 46-43 | 51.7% | -2.7% | -2.7% | +1.3% |
| low | 6 | 0-6 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -0.8% |
| mid | 84 | 38-46 | 45.2% | -4.3% | -4.2% | +1.0% |
| n/a | 8 | 3-5 | 37.5% | -41.0% | -41.1% | +6.1% |
By sharp fade
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| neutral | 63 | 26-37 | 41.3% | -14.0% | -14.2% | +2.5% |
| fade 3-4pp | 97 | 49-48 | 50.5% | -4.1% | -0.9% | +0.2% |
| fade 4pp+ | 17 | 7-9 | 43.8% | -3.3% | -18.0% | +1.1% |
| n/a | 11 | 5-6 | 45.5% | -34.3% | -23.4% | -0.7% |
By odds bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| big fav (-150+) | 11 | 3-8 | 27.3% | -49.2% | -59.7% | +2.1% |
| small fav (-101..-149) | 106 | 60-45 | 57.1% | 0.2% | 4.1% | -0.0% |
| small dog (+100..+150) | 43 | 16-27 | 37.2% | -23.5% | -20.1% | +1.9% |
| big dog (+151+) | 28 | 8-20 | 28.6% | -16.2% | -15.5% | +3.7% |
By Kelly bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <0.5% | 163 | 78-84 | 48.1% | -6.2% | -6.0% | +1.1% |
| 0.5-1% | 17 | 6-11 | 35.3% | -16.9% | -12.9% | +0.5% |
| 1-1.5% | 2 | 0-2 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | — |
| 1.5%+ | 6 | 3-3 | 50.0% | -16.4% | -22.5% | +3.0% |
By edge stability
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stable | 38 | 16-22 | 42.1% | -20.8% | -18.7% | +0.0% |
| moderate | 25 | 11-14 | 44.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | +5.8% |
| fragile | 110 | 54-55 | 49.5% | -6.4% | -4.4% | +0.5% |
| n/a | 15 | 6-9 | 40.0% | -27.2% | -29.8% | +0.0% |
By confidence bucket
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-60 | 6 | 0-6 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -0.1% |
| 60-80 | 172 | 82-89 | 48.0% | -6.5% | -4.6% | +1.2% |
| 80-100 | 10 | 5-5 | 50.0% | -29.3% | -12.7% | -0.3% |
Favorite vs underdog
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| favorite | 117 | 63-53 | 54.3% | -5.6% | -1.9% | +0.1% |
| underdog | 71 | 24-47 | 33.8% | -20.4% | -18.3% | +2.6% |
CLV positive vs negative
| Bucket | Bets | Record | Hit | Kelly ROI | Flat ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV+ | 79 | 35-44 | 44.3% | -13.9% | -11.7% | +4.7% |
| CLV- | 99 | 48-50 | 49.0% | -2.9% | -2.3% | -1.8% |
| unknown | 10 | 4-6 | 40.0% | -34.6% | -36.5% | — |