Over/under model

Totals

An independent over/under model: a purpose-built run estimator (starters, bullpen innings, lineups, park, and weather) turned into a run distribution, anchored to the totals market. Picks are paper-only until they show positive closing-line value — graded against the sharp totals close, never the moneyline close.

Paper / simulated
Paper recordWins–losses–pushes over graded totals picks. A final total exactly on the line is a push (stake returned), never a loss.37-40-2
Graded79
Avg CLVClosing-line value in probability points vs the sharp totals close — the gate for ever taking totals live.+0.80pp
Beat the close56/81

Totals board

Sat, Sep 5, 2026

scan complete · 0 rows

No totals picks on this slate

The model evaluated the over/under on every game below and none cleared the EV threshold (or weather was unavailable). Quiet days are part of the discipline.

Recent resultsTrack record

Analyzed · below EV threshold or weather-held

11 games

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles · 7:05 PM ET

Over 8.0 (total runs)

Sonny Gray vs Chris Bassitt

PaperSimulated pick. Totals stay paper-only until they show positive CLV vs the totals close — never sized with real money on this page.Fragile edge-114
EVExpected value: the model's edge from its blended over/under probability vs the price. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.+1.7%
ModelThe model's probability for THIS side (over or under), after blending toward the de-vigged totals market. Used to compute EV.54.2%
MarketThe market's fair probability for this side — the over/under price with the vig removed.51.0%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll (quarter-Kelly, capped by tier). PAPER while totals are in simulation.0.0%
ConfData confidence (0–100): both starters rated, offense/bullpen data, weather feed up, lineups confirmed, and our build close to the market.65
CLVClosing-line value vs the SHARP totals close, in probability points. + = the market moved toward our side after we bet (we beat the close) — the gate to take totals live.—
Projected totalThe purpose-built run estimator's expected total (a bounded tilt off the market total), with the over/under split it implies.10.2vs market 8.0runs 5.7 – 4.4

P(over): model 63.6% · market 51.0% · blended 54.2%

Show run breakdown ▾

Run environment

  • Home offensewRC+ 98 vs away staff 3.634.41r
  • Away offensewRC+ 103 vs home staff 4.495.74r
  • Park factorin team runs abovePF 102×1.020
  • Weatherin team runs above26C, wind 9km/h out 6×1.080
  • Home staff (SP+RP innings)SP 4.72x5.3ip + RP 4.16x3.7ip = 4.49
  • Away staff (SP+RP innings)SP 3.53x5.3ip + RP 3.78x3.7ip = 3.63

Raw model total (home + away, park & weather included) 10.15

Distribution mean: market-implied 9.29 + 0.86 bounded tilt → 10.15

Negative-binomial distribution · mean 10.2 · variance 25.4 · push 8.5%

Weather / run environment

26C, wind 9km/h out 6 ×1.080 · applied once, inside the per-team runs

Market anchor

Blend (low · data conf 65): model P(over) 63.6% × 0.25 + market 51.0% → 54.2% (P(over), used for EV)

Sharp close: pinnacle 8.0 · P(over) 50.0%

Signals

  • · fading sharp total by 3.4pp
  • · raw-vs-market gap 2.15r near skip limit

Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers · 7:05 PM ET

Over 7.0 (total runs)

Drew Rasmussen vs Jacob deGrom

PaperSimulated pick. Totals stay paper-only until they show positive CLV vs the totals close — never sized with real money on this page.Fragile edge-105
EVExpected value: the model's edge from its blended over/under probability vs the price. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.+1.5%
ModelThe model's probability for THIS side (over or under), after blending toward the de-vigged totals market. Used to compute EV.52.0%
MarketThe market's fair probability for this side — the over/under price with the vig removed.48.8%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll (quarter-Kelly, capped by tier). PAPER while totals are in simulation.0.0%
ConfData confidence (0–100): both starters rated, offense/bullpen data, weather feed up, lineups confirmed, and our build close to the market.65
CLVClosing-line value vs the SHARP totals close, in probability points. + = the market moved toward our side after we bet (we beat the close) — the gate to take totals live.—
Projected totalThe purpose-built run estimator's expected total (a bounded tilt off the market total), with the over/under split it implies.8.8vs market 7.0runs 4.7 – 4.1

P(over): model 61.4% · market 48.8% · blended 52.0%

Show run breakdown ▾

Run environment

  • Home offensewRC+ 100 vs away staff 3.314.09r
  • Away offensewRC+ 104 vs home staff 3.674.71r
  • Park factorin team runs abovePF 102×1.020
  • Weatherin team runs above32C, wind 13km/h out 2; retractable roof assumed OPEN×1.080
  • Home staff (SP+RP innings)SP 3.33x5.3ip + RP 4.15x3.7ip = 3.67
  • Away staff (SP+RP innings)SP 2.89x5.3ip + RP 3.91x3.7ip = 3.31

Raw model total (home + away, park & weather included) 8.80

Distribution mean: market-implied 8.04 + 0.76 bounded tilt → 8.80

Negative-binomial distribution · mean 8.8 · variance 22.0 · push 9.2%

Weather / run environment

32C, wind 13km/h out 2; retractable roof assumed OPEN ×1.080 · applied once, inside the per-team runs

Market anchor

Blend (low · data conf 65): model P(over) 61.4% × 0.25 + market 48.8% → 52.0% (P(over), used for EV)

Sharp close: pinnacle 7.0 · P(over) 48.3%

Signals

  • · fading sharp total by 3.3pp
  • · raw-vs-market gap 1.80r near skip limit

Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers · 9:10 PM ET

Over 8.0 (total runs)

Cade Cavalli vs Tyler Glasnow

PaperSimulated pick. Totals stay paper-only until they show positive CLV vs the totals close — never sized with real money on this page.Fragile edge-102
EVExpected value: the model's edge from its blended over/under probability vs the price. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.+1.3%
ModelThe model's probability for THIS side (over or under), after blending toward the de-vigged totals market. Used to compute EV.51.1%
MarketThe market's fair probability for this side — the over/under price with the vig removed.48.1%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll (quarter-Kelly, capped by tier). PAPER while totals are in simulation.0.0%
ConfData confidence (0–100): both starters rated, offense/bullpen data, weather feed up, lineups confirmed, and our build close to the market.65
CLVClosing-line value vs the SHARP totals close, in probability points. + = the market moved toward our side after we bet (we beat the close) — the gate to take totals live.—
Projected totalThe purpose-built run estimator's expected total (a bounded tilt off the market total), with the over/under split it implies.9.8vs market 8.0runs 4.1 – 5.7

P(over): model 60.2% · market 48.1% · blended 51.1%

Show run breakdown ▾

Run environment

  • Home offensewRC+ 111 vs away staff 4.455.66r
  • Away offensewRC+ 109 vs home staff 3.274.09r
  • Park factorin team runs abovePF 98×0.980
  • Weatherin team runs above20C, wind 7km/h out 4×1.042
  • Home staff (SP+RP innings)SP 2.75x5.3ip + RP 4.01x3.7ip = 3.27
  • Away staff (SP+RP innings)SP 3.66x5.3ip + RP 5.59x3.7ip = 4.45

Raw model total (home + away, park & weather included) 9.75

Distribution mean: market-implied 8.95 + 0.80 bounded tilt → 9.75

Negative-binomial distribution · mean 9.8 · variance 24.4 · push 8.7%

Weather / run environment

20C, wind 7km/h out 4 ×1.042 · applied once, inside the per-team runs

Market anchor

Blend (low · data conf 65): model P(over) 60.2% × 0.25 + market 48.1% → 51.1% (P(over), used for EV)

Sharp close: pinnacle 8.0 · P(over) 48.5%

Signals

  • · fading sharp total by 3.3pp
  • · raw-vs-market gap 1.75r near skip limit

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies · 6:05 PM ET

Under 8.0 (total runs)

Martín Pérez vs Zack Wheeler

PaperSimulated pick. Totals stay paper-only until they show positive CLV vs the totals close — never sized with real money on this page.Moderate edge-102
EVExpected value: the model's edge from its blended over/under probability vs the price. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.+0.2%
ModelThe model's probability for THIS side (over or under), after blending toward the de-vigged totals market. Used to compute EV.50.6%
MarketThe market's fair probability for this side — the over/under price with the vig removed.48.1%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll (quarter-Kelly, capped by tier). PAPER while totals are in simulation.0.0%
ConfData confidence (0–100): both starters rated, offense/bullpen data, weather feed up, lineups confirmed, and our build close to the market.84
CLVClosing-line value vs the SHARP totals close, in probability points. + = the market moved toward our side after we bet (we beat the close) — the gate to take totals live.—
Projected totalThe purpose-built run estimator's expected total (a bounded tilt off the market total), with the over/under split it implies.8.1vs market 8.0runs 3.8 – 4.3

P(over): model 44.9% · market 51.9% · blended 49.4%

Show run breakdown ▾

Run environment

  • Home offensewRC+ 98 vs away staff 3.844.30r
  • Away offensewRC+ 101 vs home staff 3.333.84r
  • Park factorin team runs abovePF 102×1.020
  • Weatherin team runs above25C, wind 7km/h in 4×0.992
  • Home staff (SP+RP innings)SP 2.80x5.3ip + RP 4.10x3.7ip = 3.33
  • Away staff (SP+RP innings)SP 4.33x5.3ip + RP 3.15x3.7ip = 3.84

Raw model total (home + away, park & weather included) 8.13

Distribution mean: market-implied 9.38 − 1.25 bounded tilt → 8.13

Negative-binomial distribution · mean 8.1 · variance 20.3 · push 8.8%

Weather / run environment

25C, wind 7km/h in 4 ×0.992 · applied once, inside the per-team runs

Market anchor

Blend (mid · data conf 84): model P(over) 44.9% × 0.35 + market 51.9% → 49.4% (P(over), used for EV)

Sharp close: pinnacle 8.0 · P(over) 51.8%

Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates · 6:40 PM ET

Over 8.0 (total runs)

Yusei Kikuchi vs Braxton Ashcraft

PaperSimulated pick. Totals stay paper-only until they show positive CLV vs the totals close — never sized with real money on this page.Fragile edge-103
EVExpected value: the model's edge from its blended over/under probability vs the price. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.-0.8%
ModelThe model's probability for THIS side (over or under), after blending toward the de-vigged totals market. Used to compute EV.50.4%
MarketThe market's fair probability for this side — the over/under price with the vig removed.48.4%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll (quarter-Kelly, capped by tier). PAPER while totals are in simulation.0.0%
ConfData confidence (0–100): both starters rated, offense/bullpen data, weather feed up, lineups confirmed, and our build close to the market.70
CLVClosing-line value vs the SHARP totals close, in probability points. + = the market moved toward our side after we bet (we beat the close) — the gate to take totals live.—
Projected totalThe purpose-built run estimator's expected total (a bounded tilt off the market total), with the over/under split it implies.9.3vs market 8.0runs 3.6 – 5.7

P(over): model 56.3% · market 48.4% · blended 50.3%

Show run breakdown ▾

Run environment

  • Home offensewRC+ 104 vs away staff 4.655.72r
  • Away offensewRC+ 89 vs home staff 3.443.60r
  • Park factorin team runs abovePF 99×0.990
  • Weatherin team runs above22C, wind 4km/h out 4×1.058
  • Home staff (SP+RP innings)SP 3.19x5.3ip + RP 3.79x3.7ip = 3.44
  • Away staff (SP+RP innings)SP 4.63x5.3ip + RP 4.67x3.7ip = 4.65

Raw model total (home + away, park & weather included) 9.32

Distribution mean: market-implied 8.98 + 0.34 bounded tilt → 9.32

Negative-binomial distribution · mean 9.3 · variance 23.3 · push 8.8%

Weather / run environment

22C, wind 4km/h out 4 ×1.058 · applied once, inside the per-team runs

Market anchor

Blend (low · data conf 70): model P(over) 56.3% × 0.25 + market 48.4% → 50.3% (P(over), used for EV)

Sharp close: pinnacle 7.5 · P(over) 51.4%

Signals

  • · raw-vs-market gap 1.32r near skip limit

Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals · 7:10 PM ET

Over 9.5 (total runs)

Max Scherzer vs Seth Lugo

PaperSimulated pick. Totals stay paper-only until they show positive CLV vs the totals close — never sized with real money on this page.Fragile edge-114
EVExpected value: the model's edge from its blended over/under probability vs the price. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.-1.9%
ModelThe model's probability for THIS side (over or under), after blending toward the de-vigged totals market. Used to compute EV.52.3%
MarketThe market's fair probability for this side — the over/under price with the vig removed.51.0%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll (quarter-Kelly, capped by tier). PAPER while totals are in simulation.0.0%
ConfData confidence (0–100): both starters rated, offense/bullpen data, weather feed up, lineups confirmed, and our build close to the market.69
CLVClosing-line value vs the SHARP totals close, in probability points. + = the market moved toward our side after we bet (we beat the close) — the gate to take totals live.—
Projected totalThe purpose-built run estimator's expected total (a bounded tilt off the market total), with the over/under split it implies.10.9vs market 9.5runs 6.2 – 4.8

P(over): model 56.0% · market 51.0% · blended 52.3%

Show run breakdown ▾

Run environment

  • Home offensewRC+ 100 vs away staff 3.774.76r
  • Away offensewRC+ 92 vs home staff 5.266.15r
  • Park factorin team runs abovePF 104×1.040
  • Weatherin team runs above29C, wind 8km/h out 7×1.080
  • Home staff (SP+RP innings)SP 4.90x5.3ip + RP 5.79x3.7ip = 5.26
  • Away staff (SP+RP innings)SP 4.01x5.3ip + RP 3.41x3.7ip = 3.77

Raw model total (home + away, park & weather included) 10.91

Distribution mean: market-implied 10.29 + 0.62 bounded tilt → 10.91

Negative-binomial distribution · mean 10.9 · variance 27.3

Weather / run environment

29C, wind 8km/h out 7 ×1.080 · applied once, inside the per-team runs

Market anchor

Blend (low · data conf 69): model P(over) 56.0% × 0.25 + market 51.0% → 52.3% (P(over), used for EV)

Sharp close: pinnacle 9.5 · P(over) 50.5%

Signals

  • · raw-vs-market gap 1.41r near skip limit

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros · 7:15 PM ET

Over 8.5 (total runs)

Brandon Pfaadt vs Ethan Pecko

PaperSimulated pick. Totals stay paper-only until they show positive CLV vs the totals close — never sized with real money on this page.Moderate edge-110
EVExpected value: the model's edge from its blended over/under probability vs the price. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.-1.9%
ModelThe model's probability for THIS side (over or under), after blending toward the de-vigged totals market. Used to compute EV.51.4%
MarketThe market's fair probability for this side — the over/under price with the vig removed.50.0%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll (quarter-Kelly, capped by tier). PAPER while totals are in simulation.0.0%
ConfData confidence (0–100): both starters rated, offense/bullpen data, weather feed up, lineups confirmed, and our build close to the market.72
CLVClosing-line value vs the SHARP totals close, in probability points. + = the market moved toward our side after we bet (we beat the close) — the gate to take totals live.—
Projected totalThe purpose-built run estimator's expected total (a bounded tilt off the market total), with the over/under split it implies.9.6vs market 8.5runs 5.2 – 4.4

P(over): model 54.0% · market 50.0% · blended 51.4%

Show run breakdown ▾

Run environment

  • Home offensewRC+ 101 vs away staff 3.614.43r
  • Away offensewRC+ 97 vs home staff 4.415.20r
  • Park factorin team runs abovePF 100×1.000
  • Weatherin team runs above28C, wind 7km/h out 7; retractable roof assumed OPEN×1.080
  • Home staff (SP+RP innings)SP 4.64x5.3ip + RP 4.08x3.7ip = 4.41
  • Away staff (SP+RP innings)SP 3.62x5.3ip + RP 3.59x3.7ip = 3.61

Raw model total (home + away, park & weather included) 9.63

Distribution mean: market-implied 9.16 + 0.47 bounded tilt → 9.63

Negative-binomial distribution · mean 9.6 · variance 24.1

Weather / run environment

28C, wind 7km/h out 7; retractable roof assumed OPEN ×1.080 · applied once, inside the per-team runs

Market anchor

Blend (mid · data conf 72): model P(over) 54.0% × 0.35 + market 50.0% → 51.4% (P(over), used for EV)

Sharp close: pinnacle 8.5 · P(over) 49.8%

San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets · 4:10 PM ET

Over 8.0 (total runs)

Anthony Molina vs Zac Thornton

PaperSimulated pick. Totals stay paper-only until they show positive CLV vs the totals close — never sized with real money on this page.Moderate edge-105
EVExpected value: the model's edge from its blended over/under probability vs the price. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.-2.1%
ModelThe model's probability for THIS side (over or under), after blending toward the de-vigged totals market. Used to compute EV.50.1%
MarketThe market's fair probability for this side — the over/under price with the vig removed.48.8%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll (quarter-Kelly, capped by tier). PAPER while totals are in simulation.0.0%
ConfData confidence (0–100): both starters rated, offense/bullpen data, weather feed up, lineups confirmed, and our build close to the market.75
CLVClosing-line value vs the SHARP totals close, in probability points. + = the market moved toward our side after we bet (we beat the close) — the gate to take totals live.—
Projected totalThe purpose-built run estimator's expected total (a bounded tilt off the market total), with the over/under split it implies.8.9vs market 8.0runs 4.7 – 4.2

P(over): model 52.5% · market 48.8% · blended 50.1%

Show run breakdown ▾

Run environment

  • Home offensewRC+ 94 vs away staff 4.334.24r
  • Away offensewRC+ 98 vs home staff 4.554.68r
  • Park factorin team runs abovePF 97×0.970
  • Weatherin team runs above23C, wind 11km/h in 6×0.957
  • Home staff (SP+RP innings)SP 4.28x5.3ip + RP 4.94x3.7ip = 4.55
  • Away staff (SP+RP innings)SP 4.06x5.3ip + RP 4.71x3.7ip = 4.33

Raw model total (home + away, park & weather included) 8.92

Distribution mean: market-implied 9.03 − 0.11 bounded tilt → 8.92

Negative-binomial distribution · mean 8.9 · variance 22.3 · push 8.9%

Weather / run environment

23C, wind 11km/h in 6 ×0.957 · applied once, inside the per-team runs

Market anchor

Blend (mid · data conf 75): model P(over) 52.5% × 0.35 + market 48.8% → 50.1% (P(over), used for EV)

Sharp close: pinnacle 8.0 · P(over) 48.8%

Athletics @ Seattle Mariners · 9:40 PM ET

Over 8.0 (total runs)

Jeffrey Springs vs George Kirby

PaperSimulated pick. Totals stay paper-only until they show positive CLV vs the totals close — never sized with real money on this page.Moderate edge-105
EVExpected value: the model's edge from its blended over/under probability vs the price. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.-3.2%
ModelThe model's probability for THIS side (over or under), after blending toward the de-vigged totals market. Used to compute EV.49.6%
MarketThe market's fair probability for this side — the over/under price with the vig removed.48.8%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll (quarter-Kelly, capped by tier). PAPER while totals are in simulation.0.0%
ConfData confidence (0–100): both starters rated, offense/bullpen data, weather feed up, lineups confirmed, and our build close to the market.76
CLVClosing-line value vs the SHARP totals close, in probability points. + = the market moved toward our side after we bet (we beat the close) — the gate to take totals live.—
Projected totalThe purpose-built run estimator's expected total (a bounded tilt off the market total), with the over/under split it implies.8.8vs market 8.0runs 4.0 – 4.7

P(over): model 51.0% · market 48.8% · blended 49.6%

Show run breakdown ▾

Run environment

  • Home offensewRC+ 92 vs away staff 5.234.73r
  • Away offensewRC+ 102 vs home staff 4.014.03r
  • Park factorin team runs abovePF 95×0.950
  • Weatherin team runs above16C, wind 6km/h in 6; retractable roof assumed OPEN×0.920
  • Home staff (SP+RP innings)SP 3.78x5.3ip + RP 4.34x3.7ip = 4.01
  • Away staff (SP+RP innings)SP 4.67x5.3ip + RP 6.04x3.7ip = 5.23

Raw model total (home + away, park & weather included) 8.76

Distribution mean: market-implied 9.03 − 0.27 bounded tilt → 8.76

Negative-binomial distribution · mean 8.8 · variance 21.9 · push 8.9%

Weather / run environment

16C, wind 6km/h in 6; retractable roof assumed OPEN ×0.920 · applied once, inside the per-team runs

Market anchor

Blend (mid · data conf 76): model P(over) 51.0% × 0.35 + market 48.8% → 49.6% (P(over), used for EV)

Sharp close: betonlineag 8.0 · P(over) 48.8%

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians · 6:10 PM ET

Over 7.0 (total runs)

Framber Valdez vs Parker Messick

PaperSimulated pick. Totals stay paper-only until they show positive CLV vs the totals close — never sized with real money on this page.Moderate edge-115
EVExpected value: the model's edge from its blended over/under probability vs the price. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.-3.6%
ModelThe model's probability for THIS side (over or under), after blending toward the de-vigged totals market. Used to compute EV.51.6%
MarketThe market's fair probability for this side — the over/under price with the vig removed.51.2%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll (quarter-Kelly, capped by tier). PAPER while totals are in simulation.0.0%
ConfData confidence (0–100): both starters rated, offense/bullpen data, weather feed up, lineups confirmed, and our build close to the market.75
CLVClosing-line value vs the SHARP totals close, in probability points. + = the market moved toward our side after we bet (we beat the close) — the gate to take totals live.—
Projected totalThe purpose-built run estimator's expected total (a bounded tilt off the market total), with the over/under split it implies.7.9vs market 7.0runs 3.4 – 4.5

P(over): model 52.3% · market 51.2% · blended 51.6%

Show run breakdown ▾

Run environment

  • Home offensewRC+ 92 vs away staff 4.264.48r
  • Away offensewRC+ 98 vs home staff 3.033.39r
  • Park factorin team runs abovePF 97×0.970
  • Weatherin team runs above21C, wind 5km/h out 5×1.054
  • Home staff (SP+RP innings)SP 2.59x5.3ip + RP 3.65x3.7ip = 3.03
  • Away staff (SP+RP innings)SP 4.37x5.3ip + RP 4.10x3.7ip = 4.26

Raw model total (home + away, park & weather included) 7.88

Distribution mean: market-implied 8.29 − 0.41 bounded tilt → 7.88

Negative-binomial distribution · mean 7.9 · variance 19.7 · push 9.5%

Weather / run environment

21C, wind 5km/h out 5 ×1.054 · applied once, inside the per-team runs

Market anchor

Blend (mid · data conf 75): model P(over) 52.3% × 0.35 + market 51.2% → 51.6% (P(over), used for EV)

Sharp close: betonlineag 7.0 · P(over) 51.2%

St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies · 8:10 PM ET

Over 11.0 (total runs)

Matthew Liberatore vs Mason Adams

PaperSimulated pick. Totals stay paper-only until they show positive CLV vs the totals close — never sized with real money on this page.Fragile edgeWeather n/aThe weather feed was unavailable for this game, so the pick is shown but held to analysis-only — we never bet a total blind to weather.-102
EVExpected value: the model's edge from its blended over/under probability vs the price. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.-4.4%
ModelThe model's probability for THIS side (over or under), after blending toward the de-vigged totals market. Used to compute EV.48.3%
MarketThe market's fair probability for this side — the over/under price with the vig removed.48.0%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll (quarter-Kelly, capped by tier). PAPER while totals are in simulation.0.0%
ConfData confidence (0–100): both starters rated, offense/bullpen data, weather feed up, lineups confirmed, and our build close to the market.54
CLVClosing-line value vs the SHARP totals close, in probability points. + = the market moved toward our side after we bet (we beat the close) — the gate to take totals live.—
Projected totalThe purpose-built run estimator's expected total (a bounded tilt off the market total), with the over/under split it implies.11.5vs market 11.0runs 5.4 – 6.2

P(over): model 48.9% · market 48.0% · blended 48.3%

Show run breakdown ▾

Run environment

  • Home offensewRC+ 106 vs away staff 4.616.16r
  • Away offensewRC+ 95 vs home staff 4.465.37r
  • Park factorin team runs abovePF 112×1.120
  • Weatherin team runs aboveunavailableweather feed unavailable×1.000
  • Home staff (SP+RP innings)SP 4.15x5.3ip + RP 4.91x3.7ip = 4.46
  • Away staff (SP+RP innings)SP 4.67x5.3ip + RP 4.53x3.7ip = 4.61

Raw model total (home + away, park & weather included) 11.53

Distribution mean: market-implied 11.90 − 0.37 bounded tilt → 11.53

Negative-binomial distribution · mean 11.5 · variance 28.8 · push 7.6%

Weather / run environment

weather feed unavailable ×1.000 · applied once, inside the per-team runs · unavailable (held to analysis-only)

Market anchor

Blend (low · data conf 54): model P(over) 48.9% × 0.25 + market 48.0% → 48.3% (P(over), used for EV)

Sharp close: pinnacle 11.0 · P(over) 48.6%

Signals

  • · weather unavailable
  • · weather unavailable -> analysis only (not bet)