+EV MLB moneyline · starting-pitcher focused

Tomorrow's lines.
Today's edge.

Every projection begins with market probabilities, removes the vig, models the game, and publishes only positive expected value. Every pick shows its full reasoning and is tracked for EV and closing-line value.

View today's picks Track record
Temporal analysis · v88Live
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+EV picks

Sat, Sep 5, 2026

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No +EV bets on this slate

The model looked at every game below and none cleared the EV threshold. Quiet days are part of the discipline — fewer bets, sharper picks.

Recent resultsTrack record

Model passed · below EV threshold

11 games

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds · 6:40 PM ET

Lean Milwaukee Brewers (away)

Sharp fade · 3.9pp

Proj 6.1 – 4.4

-167

Adj EV

+0.6%

raw +2.6%

Model

64.2%

Athletics @ Seattle Mariners · 9:40 PM ET

Lean Athletics (away)

Below threshold after adjustments

Proj 4.3 – 5.1

+209

Adj EV

+1.1%

raw +1.1%

Model

32.7%

Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers · 7:05 PM ET

Lean Tampa Bay Rays (away)

Below threshold after adjustments

Proj 4.3 – 3.7

-110

Adj EV

+0.7%

raw +0.7%

Model

52.8%

New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres · 7:15 PM ET

Lean New York Yankees (away)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.4 – 3.7

-106

Adj EV

-0.9%

raw -0.9%

Model

51.0%

San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets · 4:10 PM ET

Lean San Francisco Giants (away)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.8 – 4.4

+153

Adj EV

-1.0%

raw -1.0%

Model

39.1%

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros · 7:15 PM ET

Lean Arizona Diamondbacks (away)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.9 – 4.1

-108

Adj EV

-1.7%

raw -1.7%

Model

51.0%

Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers · 9:10 PM ET

Lean Los Angeles Dodgers (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 3.8 – 5.3

-231

Adj EV

-3.0%

raw -3.0%

Model

67.7%

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox · 7:10 PM ET

Lean Minnesota Twins (away)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.9 – 4.5

+101

Adj EV

-3.7%

raw -3.7%

Model

47.9%

St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies · 8:10 PM ET

Lean Colorado Rockies (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 5.3 – 6.2

+104

Adj EV

-3.8%

raw -3.8%

Model

47.1%

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles · 7:05 PM ET

Lean Boston Red Sox (away)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 5.4 – 4.1

-149

Adj EV

-4.0%

raw -4.0%

Model

57.4%

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies · 6:05 PM ET

Lean Philadelphia Phillies (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 3.8 – 4.4

-163

Adj EV

-4.2%

raw -4.2%

Model

59.4%

System architecture

The BiffBet Model

Every projection begins with market probabilities, removes the vig, models the game, and publishes only positive expected value.

Model v88

  1. Market probabilities

    Best moneyline price per side across the configured books.

    Active

  2. Vig removal

    The juice comes out — the de-vigged market is the sharp baseline.

    Active

  3. Win-probability model

    A transparent weighted sum: starting pitcher, bullpen, lineup, park, home field, and recent form — every component visible on every pick.

    Transparent

  4. Market anchor

    The model is blended toward the de-vigged market. It expresses a bounded tilt, never a hot take.

    Active

  5. Edge detection

    Only positive expected value past the threshold gets published. Quiet days are part of the discipline.

    +EV only

  6. Bet sizing

    Quarter-Kelly with hard tier caps; context haircuts size the bet down before it sizes up.

    Capped

  7. CLV tracking

    Opening price frozen at pick time, closing line captured near first pitch. Beating the close is the long-run skill signal.

    Verified