+EV MLB moneyline · starting-pitcher focused

Tomorrow's lines.
Today's edge.

Every projection begins with market probabilities, removes the vig, models the game, and publishes only positive expected value. Every pick shows its full reasoning and is tracked for EV and closing-line value.

View today's picks Track record
Temporal analysis · v88Live
Current timestamp · ET

SYNCING…

Time advantage is real.We measure it.

Retro time-machine sports car speeding into the grid, leaving fire trails and lightning

Live board

+EV picks

Tue, Jul 21, 2026

Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros · 8:10 PM ET

Miami Marlins (away)

Tyler Phillips vs Tatsuya Imai

Projected 5.2 – 4.9 · total 10.1

Moderate edgeLeanLean: a small bet (Adjusted EV 2–5%). Lower conviction; stake capped at 0.5% of bankroll.Projected lineupSharps fade 2.8ppYou're betting against the sharp books' consensus on this side by this many percentage points. Higher = more contrarian to the smartest money (already penalized in Adjusted EV).+112
Raw EVRaw expected value: the model's edge from its win probability vs the price, before any context adjustments. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.+3.4%
Adj EVAdjusted EV: Raw EV after small context haircuts/boosts (sharp support/fade, projected lineup, fragile edge). This is the number used to size the bet.+3.4%
ModelThe model's win probability for this side, after blending toward the market. Used to compute EV.48.8%
MarketThe market's fair win probability for this side — the book's moneyline with the vig (juice) removed.44.7%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll, from the Kelly criterion (quarter-Kelly, then capped by the bet tier).0.5%
ConfModel confidence (0–100): data completeness, pitcher sample size, edge magnitude, and how much the model's components agree.74
CLVClosing Line Value: how much better your bet price was than the closing line. Positive = you beat the close — the key long-run skill signal.+3.9%
SizingsmallKelly 0.5% 0.7%

adj EV 3.4% in lean range [2%, 5%)

Show model breakdown ▾

Dynamic adjustments

Base win prob (home): 45.8%

  • Starting pitcherrate H=4.58(statcast_rate) A=4.55(statcast_rate)-0.20%
  • Bullpenrelief FIP H=4.24 A=3.96-0.62%
  • Bullpen availabilityH 3/3 leverage arms available (+0.0%); A 3/3 leverage arms available (+0.0%)+0.00%
  • LineupLINEUP NOT POSTED YETH projected lineup; A projected lineup+0.00%
  • Park / offensePF=100 wRC+ H=101 A=104+0.00%
  • Home field+0.025 home+2.50%
  • Recent formxwOBAcon H season=0.410 | A 30d=0.404/season=0.363 (normal cap +/-1.5%)-1.13%

Market intelligence

Blend (high · data conf 89): model 46.4% × 0.45 + market 55.3% → 51.2% (home, used for EV)

Open +112 → Close +104 · CLV 3.9%

Sharps (n=3): 54.0% home · Squares (n=3): 55.3% home · S−Sq -1.3pp · dispersion 0.7pp

Model passed · below EV threshold

14 games

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays · 7:07 PM ET

Lean Tampa Bay Rays (away)

Sharp fade · 3.8pp

Proj 4.4 – 3.6

-111

Adj EV

+0.3%

raw +2.3%

Model

53.8%

Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies · 8:40 PM ET

Lean Washington Nationals (away)

Below threshold after adjustments

Proj 7.2 – 6.0

-112

Adj EV

+0.7%

raw +0.7%

Model

53.2%

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers · 7:40 PM ET

Lean Milwaukee Brewers (home)

Below threshold after adjustments

Proj 4.1 – 4.6

-136

Adj EV

+0.5%

raw +0.5%

Model

57.9%

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves · 7:15 PM ET

Lean Atlanta Braves (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.0 – 4.7

-147

Adj EV

-0.5%

raw -0.5%

Model

59.2%

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians · 6:40 PM ET

Lean Cleveland Guardians (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 3.8 – 4.2

-150

Adj EV

-0.9%

raw -0.9%

Model

59.5%

Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks · 9:40 PM ET

Lean Arizona Diamondbacks (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.5 – 4.9

-137

Adj EV

-1.9%

raw -0.9%

Model

57.3%

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies · 6:40 PM ET

Lean Philadelphia Phillies (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.2 – 4.3

-122

Adj EV

-1.5%

raw -1.5%

Model

54.2%

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox · 7:10 PM ET

Lean Boston Red Sox (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.4 – 4.5

-113

Adj EV

-1.6%

raw -1.6%

Model

52.2%

Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers · 8:05 PM ET

Lean Texas Rangers (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 5.3 – 5.3

-124

Adj EV

-2.0%

raw -2.0%

Model

54.3%

San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals · 7:40 PM ET

Lean San Francisco Giants (away)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 5.7 – 4.9

-114

Adj EV

-2.0%

raw -2.0%

Model

52.2%

St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels · 9:38 PM ET

Lean Los Angeles Angels (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.0 – 5.0

-120

Adj EV

-2.1%

raw -2.1%

Model

53.4%

Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners · 9:40 PM ET

Lean Cincinnati Reds (away)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.1 – 3.6

+101

Adj EV

-2.8%

raw -2.8%

Model

48.4%

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees · 7:05 PM ET

Lean Pittsburgh Pirates (away)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.8 – 4.8

+114

Adj EV

-4.0%

raw -4.0%

Model

44.9%

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs · 8:05 PM ET

Lean Detroit Tigers (away)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 5.0 – 4.9

+101

Adj EV

-4.3%

raw -4.3%

Model

47.6%

System architecture

The BiffBet Model

Every projection begins with market probabilities, removes the vig, models the game, and publishes only positive expected value.

Model v88

  1. Market probabilities

    Best moneyline price per side across the configured books.

    Active

  2. Vig removal

    The juice comes out — the de-vigged market is the sharp baseline.

    Active

  3. Win-probability model

    A transparent weighted sum: starting pitcher, bullpen, lineup, park, home field, and recent form — every component visible on every pick.

    Transparent

  4. Market anchor

    The model is blended toward the de-vigged market. It expresses a bounded tilt, never a hot take.

    Active

  5. Edge detection

    Only positive expected value past the threshold gets published. Quiet days are part of the discipline.

    +EV only

  6. Bet sizing

    Quarter-Kelly with hard tier caps; context haircuts size the bet down before it sizes up.

    Capped

  7. CLV tracking

    Opening price frozen at pick time, closing line captured near first pitch. Beating the close is the long-run skill signal.

    Verified