Challenger model
GriffBet
The challenger. Same transparent, market-blended approach as BiffBet, with a starter-neutralized base option, slate-level discipline, and a richer CLV split graded against the sharp close. Measured head-to-head against the champion below.
Head-to-head referee
Same games · records labeled per model · judged on process
BiffBet is the frozen champion and control; GriffBet is the challenger. We compare them on calibration (are the probabilities honest?), CLV vs the sharp close (did we beat the truest price?), and EV monotonicity (do bigger predicted edges actually realize bigger returns?). Each column shows that model's own record for transparency — but at small samples the record is noise, not the verdict.
BiffBet
champion · control87-100 · BiffBet record · 187 graded
Calibration — blended prob
Calibration — raw model prob
Closing-line value
55 earlier pick(s) had no sharp close (gap, not backfilled).
EV monotonicity
| Pred. EV | Bets | Flat ROI | Kelly ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3%..5% | 74-79 | -6.7% | -9.3% |
| 5%..8% | 13-17 | -3.1% | -2.5% |
| 8%..12% | 0-4 | -100.0% | -100.0% |
GriffBet
challenger95-125 · GriffBet record · 220 graded
Calibration — blended prob
Calibration — raw model prob
Closing-line value
EV monotonicity
| Pred. EV | Bets | Flat ROI | Kelly ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3%..5% | 81-95 | -5.3% | -5.0% |
| 5%..8% | 14-28 | -30.3% | -28.2% |
| 8%..12% | 0-2 | -100.0% | -100.0% |
GriffBet slate
scan complete · 0 rows
No GriffBet picks on this date
Nothing analyzed for this date yet.