Performance terminal · football
Football performance
Paper records for the football model, broken out by league and market and then by adjusted-EV band — the number the pick threshold and tiers actually read. Records are computed by the engine, filtered by model tag × league × market, and never blended. Small samples: read closing-line value (CLV) before win rate.
Paper / simulated← Football board
NFL · all marketsGraded 36/48 · updated Mon, Sep 28, 2026
RecordWins–losses–pushes on committed paper picks, both markets. A landing exactly on the number is a push, never a loss.12-24-0
Flat ROIReturn per unit staked at flat paper stakes.-36.0%
Avg CLVProbability points vs the sharp close — the go-live gate for football.+0.45pp
Beat the close23/48
NFL · Team picks (spreads) · by adjusted EV
| Adj EV | Picks | W-L-P | Hit | Flat ROI | Units | Avg CLV | Beat close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <4% | 11 | 1-9-0 | 10.0% | -80.9% | -8.09u | +0.21pp | 6/11 |
| 4-5% | 6 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | +47.7% | +1.91u | +1.83pp | 6/6 |
| 5-10% | 1 | — | — | — | — | -0.46pp | 0/1 |
| All picks | 18 | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | -44.1% | -6.18u | +0.72pp | 12/18 |
NFL · Over/unders (totals) · by adjusted EV
| Adj EV | Picks | W-L-P | Hit | Flat ROI | Units | Avg CLV | Beat close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <4% | 6 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | -23.6% | -1.18u | +0.39pp | 2/6 |
| 4-5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | -61.0% | -3.05u | +0.31pp | 3/5 |
| 5-10% | 17 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | -13.9% | -1.53u | +0.30pp | 5/17 |
| 10%+ | 2 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -1.00u | -0.19pp | 1/2 |
| All picks | 30 | 8-14-0 | 36.4% | -30.7% | -6.76u | +0.28pp | 11/30 |
NFL · week by week
| Week | Dates | Picks | W-L-P | Hit | Spreads | Totals | Flat ROI | Units | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 | Thu, Oct 1, 2026 – Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | +0.34pp |
| Week 3 | Sun, Sep 27, 2026 – Mon, Sep 28, 2026 | 11 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 2-2-0 | 2-4-0 | -22.9% | -2.29u | +0.48pp |
| Week 2 | Thu, Sep 17, 2026 – Mon, Sep 21, 2026 | 14 | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | 1-4-0 | 4-5-0 | -31.5% | -4.41u | +0.32pp |
| Week 1 | Thu, Sep 10, 2026 – Mon, Sep 14, 2026 | 12 | 3-9-0 | 25.0% | 1-4-0 | 2-5-0 | -52.0% | -6.24u | +0.65pp |
College (FBS) · all marketsGraded 117/144 · updated Mon, Sep 28, 2026
RecordWins–losses–pushes on committed paper picks, both markets. A landing exactly on the number is a push, never a loss.60-56-1
Flat ROIReturn per unit staked at flat paper stakes.-0.3%
Avg CLVProbability points vs the sharp close — the go-live gate for football.+0.37pp
Beat the close64/134
College (FBS) · Team picks (spreads) · by adjusted EV
| Adj EV | Picks | W-L-P | Hit | Flat ROI | Units | Avg CLV | Beat close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <4% | 32 | 13-10-0 | 56.5% | +9.4% | +1.88u | -0.01pp | 16/32 |
| 4-5% | 9 | 5-2-1 | 71.4% | +39.0% | +2.44u | -0.82pp | 3/8 |
| 5-10% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | +28.2% | +2.12u | +0.35pp | 4/8 |
| 10%+ | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | +160.0% | +1.20u | +26.83pp | 1/1 |
| All picks | 51 | 25-15-1 | 62.5% | +22.1% | +7.63u | +0.46pp | 24/49 |
College (FBS) · Over/unders (totals) · by adjusted EV
| Adj EV | Picks | W-L-P | Hit | Flat ROI | Units | Avg CLV | Beat close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <4% | 44 | 11-22-0 | 33.3% | -35.4% | -10.27u | +0.30pp | 19/41 |
| 4-5% | 22 | 12-7-0 | 63.2% | +19.8% | +3.22u | +0.30pp | 9/19 |
| 5-10% | 26 | 12-11-0 | 52.2% | -0.7% | -0.14u | +0.42pp | 12/24 |
| 10%+ | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -0.75u | -1.05pp | 0/1 |
| All picks | 93 | 35-41-0 | 46.1% | -12.2% | -7.94u | +0.32pp | 40/85 |
College (FBS) · week by week
| Week | Dates | Picks | W-L-P | Hit | Spreads | Totals | Flat ROI | Units | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 | Thu, Oct 1, 2026 – Sat, Oct 3, 2026 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | +0.15pp |
| Week 4 | Fri, Sep 25, 2026 – Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | 33 | 16-17-0 | 48.5% | 9-5-0 | 7-12-0 | -7.6% | -2.16u | +0.24pp |
| Week 3 | Thu, Sep 17, 2026 – Sat, Sep 19, 2026 | 34 | 19-15-0 | 55.9% | 8-4-0 | 11-11-0 | +7.5% | +2.20u | +0.41pp |
| Week 2 | Fri, Sep 11, 2026 – Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | 28 | 18-10-0 | 64.3% | 4-3-0 | 14-7-0 | +23.0% | +5.57u | +0.32pp |
| Week 1 | Thu, Sep 3, 2026 – Mon, Sep 7, 2026 | 22 | 7-14-1 | 33.3% | 4-3-1 | 3-11-0 | -34.3% | -5.91u | +1.11pp |