NFL + College FBS
Football
NFL + college FBS spreads and totals from a matchup-exploitation model: every unit is percentiled within its league, strong units are matched against weak opposing units (with an offensive-line layer and game-time weather), and the projection is anchored 65% to the de-vigged market. Picks are paper-only until they show positive closing-line value vs the sharp close. Records are always broken out by league and market — never blended.
Pick-mix alert: NFL totals lean 36% over across the last 50; CFB totals lean 66% over across the last 50 — outside the 60/40 band. Over/under bias check in order before trusting totals results.
Paper records · by league and market
NFL spreadsWins–losses–pushes on committed NFL spread paper picks (model matchup_v1). Exactly on the number = push, stake returned. Flat ROI -16.5% · avg CLV +0.28pp on 33 tracked.12-16-1
NFL totalsWins–losses–pushes on committed NFL total paper picks (model matchup_v1). Exactly on the number = push, stake returned. Flat ROI -12.8% · avg CLV +0.29pp on 59 tracked.23-30-0
CFB spreadsWins–losses–pushes on committed CFB spread paper picks (model matchup_v1). Exactly on the number = push, stake returned. Flat ROI +8.5% · avg CLV +0.40pp on 131 tracked.61-47-2
CFB totalsWins–losses–pushes on committed CFB total paper picks (model matchup_v1). Exactly on the number = push, stake returned. Flat ROI -13.5% · avg CLV +0.32pp on 193 tracked.78-93-0
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No football board published yet
Football publishes in season (Aug–Jan): opening lines Tuesday, refreshed daily, closes captured through the weekend windows. If this stays empty in season, the engine may not have synced the football tables yet.